Market Update July 2025
Protecting Your Wealth, Providing Income, and Positioning for Opportunity
A quick, clear look at what’s happening and how your portfolio is positioned.
What’s Happening in the Markets Right Now
Markets finished strong in June despite ongoing turbulence. The S&P/TSX rose 2.9%, supported by strong healthcare sector gains (+9%) and continued stability in Canadian fundamentals. In the U.S., the S&P 500 surged 5.1%, led by Information Technology and Communication Services (each up 7%), even as geopolitical risks and Trump’s controversial “One Big Beautiful Bill” dominated headlines.
Meanwhile, the Iran-Israel conflict escalated, spiking oil prices 7.9%, the highest monthly increase this year. Gold prices remained flat, reflecting investors alternating between fear-driven buying and short-term profit-taking.
In Canada, inflation edged down to 1.73%, aided by falling gasoline prices. The Bank of Canada held its rate at 2.75% on June 4th and signalled a potential cut at the July 30th meeting. In contrast, U.S. inflation rose modestly to 2.4%, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold, though markets are watching for a possible September rate cut.
Trump’s reinstated tariffs deadline of July 9th looms large, adding to global market anxiety. His fiscal package, which passed both the House and Senate, adds over $3.3 trillion to U.S. debt, with significant implications for interest rates, taxation, and long-term fiscal sustainability.
What This Means for You
Your portfolio is structured to navigate exactly this environment: unpredictable, headline-driven, and reactive. Through disciplined strategy, we are preserving capital, generating consistent income, and remaining agile enough to seize opportunity as it emerges.
What We’ve Done in Your Portfolio
Over the past month, we have made several incremental reallocations to adapt to market conditions:
● On June 10th, we decreased our cash position by 2%, reallocating 1% each to Canadian and U.S. equities
● On June 24th, we reduced cash again by 3%, increasing equity exposure (1% to Canada and 2% to the U.S.)
● As of early July, we’ve continued this trend, reallocating another 2% from cash (1% to Canadian equities, 1% to U.S. equities)
This leaves approximately 6% in cash, enough for flexibility while ensuring participation in equity gains.
Where You Stand Now
● Cash: Slightly overweight for flexibility and protection
● Fixed Income & Alternatives: Neutral positioning for steady income
● Equities: Underweight, increasing gradually as conditions stabilize
We are closely monitoring U.S. fiscal policy and the geopolitical backdrop. Should tensions escalate further, gold may prove a more effective hedge than bonds. If conditions improve, we’ll continue reallocating to equities.
The Bottom Line
Despite rising oil prices, trade tensions, and aggressive U.S. fiscal policy, your portfolio remains on track and performing as designed: protecting your capital, generating consistent income, and positioning you for thoughtful growth. As the world shifts, we’ll adjust together. We’ll continue sharing these monthly updates so you stay informed and confident in your plan.
If you have any questions or topics you’d like us to cover in a future update, just send us a quick email. We’d be glad to include them.
