As we move into the final month of the year, markets remain resilient, supported by moderating inflation, expectations of central bank easing in 2026, and continued strength in key sectors of the Canadian economy. November delivered solid results across our portfolios, and the underlying economic trends continue to support a constructive outlook heading into the new year.

Below is a summary of what happened in the markets, how the economic landscape is shifting, and the adjustments we made within your portfolio.

Interest Rates & Economic Conditions

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% on December 10, with market odds of another cut at just 6%.

Stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP growth
Core inflation near 3%
Prior Bank of Canada guidance suggesting the easing cycle is near its end

All contribute to the lower probability of further rate cuts this year.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, with probability estimates between 80%–90%. A cooling labour market and softer inflation continue to support a more accommodative stance heading into 2026.

Equity Markets

Canada (TSX)

S&P/TSX: +3.9%
Materials: +14.6%, driven by gold miners
Weakest sectors:

Health Care: –4.7%
Information Technology: –7.1%

United States

S&P 500: +0.2%
Health Care led with a +9.3% gain
Information Technology fell –4.3%, as expectations for earnings and valuations continue to reset

Global equities ended the month modestly positive, though volatility increased mid-month.

Current Inflation & Employment Numbers

Canada

Headline inflation: 2.2%
Core inflation: 2.9%
Unemployment: 6.9%, unchanged from October
Canada added over 125,000 jobs across September and October, mostly in service sectors

Inflation trends are encouraging but still uneven, with shelter and wage-driven service costs remaining areas to watch.

United States

CPI data delayed due to extended government shutdown
Last confirmed CPI (September): 3.0% YoY
Private estimates suggest unemployment held around 4.4%

More clarity will come when October and November data is released mid-December.

Fixed Income & Commodities

Canadian fixed income: +0.2%, as markets expect the Bank of Canada is likely done cutting
U.S. Treasuries saw slightly stronger gains ahead of the anticipated December rate cut
Oil prices declined 5.1%
Gold rose 5.6%, continuing its strong trend in 2025

Portfolio Adjustments for November

To align portfolios with current market conditions and take advantage of emerging opportunities, we executed three disciplined adjustments:

Nov 11: Sold 2% Equities → shifted to Cash
Nov 19: Sold 2% Equities → shifted to Cash
Nov 21: Sold 5% Equities → added 2% Cash + 3% Fixed Income

These adjustments increased stability while keeping us well-positioned to add back into equities as opportunities emerge.

Our Outlook & Next Steps

Despite pockets of uncertainty, there are no signs that the drivers of this year’s bull market have reversed. Accommodative central banks, resilient global growth, healthy corporate earnings, and strong momentum continue to support a constructive view for 2026.

Given this backdrop, we plan to gradually add back into equities, rebuilding exposure in a disciplined manner over the next 6 weeks. This staged approach allows us to participate in improving conditions while carefully managing risk.

Bottom Line

The economic landscape is still evolving, but the direction is encouraging. Portfolios remain diversified, flexible, and aligned with current market opportunities. We will continue to adjust positioning thoughtfully as conditions warrant.

If you have any questions about these updates or how they relate to your personal financial plan, please remember we are always here for you.

SOURCES

Market Update December 2025